The IUCN Red List has identified 47,000 species as threatened by extinction,² including 44 per cent of reef-building corals, 12 per cent of birds and 71 per cent of cycads.³ Assessments of ecosystem health began more recently and are less complete, but in the US, 41 per cent of ecosystems are estimated to be at risk of collapse⁴ and a fifth of countries are at risk from ecosystem collapse.⁵

The impacts of climate change are already being felt and are predicted to accelerate. As soon as 2070, 33 per cent of land will see significant changes in the types of plants that can survive — and that is assuming drastic cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions.⁶ The biosphere is changing around us, largely because of us.

Steps are being taken to avert the worst impacts. Governments agreed in 2022 to establish protected areas covering 30 per cent of Earth’s land and sea area by 2030.⁷ It remains to be seen whether and how this will actually be enacted. As of 2024, just 17.6 per cent of land and inland waters and 8.4 per cent of the ocean and coastal areas are within protected areas.⁸

Massive increases in the volume and diversity of ecological data are providing ever-greater understanding of the ecological changes that are occurring and of the processes that underpin them. This should enable us to predict dangerous ecological transitions and take steps to avert them, and to design more effective and fair conservation and sustainable-use actions. Some interventions may involve novel high-tech solutions such as genetic modification. However, all will require an appreciation of the role of human cultures in ecosystems⁹ and a wide discussion of the ethical and political implications well beyond the technical aspects.^10,11,12

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Ecosystems are essential to our survival and wellbeing, but many are transforming fast as a result of human activities. In a world of Ecosystems in rapid transition, it is essential to develop new methods and models to understand them, and to devise improved ethical guidance for how to manage them. Fortunately, ecology is seeing unprecedented Innovations in data-gathering, including a multitude of new types of data and methods of acquiring data. This is leading to a big increase in our capacity to discover and assess the key components of the biosphere, although access to these new tools and their products is still unequal among countries and sectors. A major lesson from modern ecology is that humanity and the rest of the biosphere are intrinsically linked, so we need to construct Connected social-ecological futures in which both humans and other life can thrive. This requires major advances in incorporating futures thinking into ecosystem modelling, including deeper integration with social, political and economic science. Such holistic understandings of ecosystems will be necessary to navigate the challenges and opportunities posed by Modified and artificial life. There is scope to use modified organisms to reduce the spread of disease, protect species and restore ecosystems — which is both exciting and profoundly morally challenging, with technological advancements sometimes progressing faster than regulatory frameworks. Not only will more information be needed to navigate this fast-transforming world: most of our conceptual frameworks and ecological narratives will also need to change.