Ecosystems are changing in diverse and hard-to-predict ways,13 due to a complex set of human drivers.
Future Horizons:
10-yearhorizon
Understanding of impacts deepens
25-yearhorizon
Forecast of species movements leads to better protective measures
One such driver is the accumulation of novel substances such as microplastics, pharmaceuticals and long-lived compounds, which are being found in the environment with increasing regularity.14,15,16 There is uncertainty about the nature and scale of their impacts,17 but emerging evidence suggests they may affect ecosystem functioning.18
Climate change, in particular, though often in combination with other factors, is causing shifts in the distributional ranges of many species.19 The average native plant species is moving around 1.74 kilometres per year — non-native species are moving significantly faster.20 Previously temperate ecosystems are increasingly home to tropical species.21 As a result, some protected areas face becoming obsolete because they are no longer able to protect the living entities they were designed to protect. Many ecosystems are not changing fast enough to keep up with the changing climate.22,23 Furthermore, because species move at different rates, most ecosystems will not simply move but will instead profoundly rearrange themselves. We are witnessing the emergence of unprecedented ecosystems that include unprecedented combinations of species. This is raising potential conflicts between human and non-human rights, and increasing risk to human health from zoonotic diseases such as Ebola and Lyme disease.24,25
Humans are directly contributing to transformations by introducing new species to regions where they did not previously exist, either accidentally or purposefully.26 Researchers are exploring methods for containing such invasions, including green infrastructure design.27 However, these efforts will be complicated by the fact that invasive species can themselves evolve, adapting to their new surroundings.28 Indeed, many groups of organisms are now undergoing rapid evolution in response to anthropogenic changes.29,30 How ecological theory and practice navigate these transitions and novel configurations is facing us with deep dilemmas in terms of ethics and logistics.