More broadly, few models consider cross-system and cross-scale connections: ecosystems are profoundly affected by economic, social and political processes such as large-scale displacement of people, global supply chains, governmental subsidies and treaties.60,61 War has rarely been treated in models of global change even though war has significant effects on biodiversity — nature’s contributions to people, food and energy systems.62,63,64 Then there is climate overshoot, which will have lasting and widespread impacts.65,66 Understanding all these processes, recognising what can be quantified and how best to include these aspects in models and their applications,67,68 is crucial for understanding what could be a better future for people and other life on Earth. There is also a need for models that take into account different philosophical approaches and human values of nature,69,70 such as envisioning a future of flourishing nature rather than a future of limited decline.71 Furthermore, understanding the importance of aspects that cannot be quantified and therefore modelled, for example some Indigenous knowledge approaches or relational values, and using other tools to incorporate these futures, is also critical.72,73
Given the primacy of economics in many societies, it is crucial to further integrate ecology with new forms of economic thinking, which may offer a path to greater sustainability, 74,75,76 embracing concepts such as degrowth77,78,79 and reciprocity with non-human life.80
