Satellite innovation
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Stakeholder Type

Satellite innovation

3.4.4

Sub-Field

Satellite innovation

Giant networks of communications satellites are already a reality, with constellations belonging to SpaceX’s Starlink, Amazon’s Project Kuiper and Eutelsat OneWeb already in orbit and with others planned.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Satellite internet services become global

The competition among commercial companies to offer satellite broadband internet connections drives down the cost of connection and helps solve the long-standing problem of providing rural internet access, particularly in developing countries. International standards agreed for de-orbiting spacecraft at the end of their life. Safe communication with ground systems such as drones becomes common.

10-yearhorizon

Satellite operations have geo-political impact

The geopolitical implications of satellite operations help drive innovation and focus efforts to govern and coordinate operations on an international level. Higher-resolution Earth observation becomes more capable and significantly cheaper.

25-yearhorizon

Improved satellite manoeuvrability

Low Earth orbit becomes an attractive location for data centres because of the availability of cheap power and free cooling. However, international tensions over the deployment of space weapons and unauthorised interference with satellites raises the risk of Earth orbit becoming a region of warfare. Lunar operations lead to international standards for coordinate systems for timing, communications and above all safety. The establishment of these standards provides a foundation for a globally representative lunar community.

These fleets will quickly become more capable as companies deploy satellite-to-satellite encrypted laser communications. Real-time video feeds from space are also gaining in popularity.12

With launch costs dropping, satellite operators are experimenting with off-the-self components for imaging, sensing and communicating at lower cost.

One important limit on satellite lifetime is the amount of onboard fuel. With high-end satellites costing hundreds of millions, refuelling is an attractive way to extend lifetimes. Lockheed Martin13 and Northrop Grumman14 are among companies developing a standard refuelling capability for satellites. Orbit Fab has already tested liquid pumping technology aboard the International Space Station and plans to offer satellite-refuelling services in 2025.15 This will require greater manoeuvrability: changing orbits and rendezvousing with other craft remains difficult, requiring plentiful fuel and agile propulsion systems.16

However, the US, Russia and China are perfecting this technique in spacecraft that can approach and inspect other vehicles.17 This, is already enabling applications such as automated refuelling of spacecraft and dramatic increases in operational lifetimes. It also raises security concerns, as close approaches in orbit enable the disruption or even disabling of civil and military satellites.

The increased activity on the Moon and in lunar orbit will require a lunar time zone with satellites proving timing, positioning and communications. That will require significant collaboration to develop international standards