Orbital region
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Stakeholder Type

Orbital region

3.4.2

Sub-Field

Orbital region

The orbital region around Earth is a resource of growing importance and strategic value, largely because cheap commercial launchers have made access easier.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

In-orbit debris removal begins

Moving defunct spacecraft and deorbiting other large pieces of debris becomes common as commercial vehicles with these capabilities become available. But a lack of transparency over what objects are being moved where increases calls for a move towards global governance of space commons.

10-yearhorizon

Debate over space weapons heats up

Commercial activities in facilitating launch and returning objects like small pieces of debris from space dramatically increase the cadence of operations in orbit. Spaceplanes, space tugs and “free flyers” are commonplace.

25-yearhorizon

Space traffic control gets green light

The world’s space traffic control begins operating from Rwanda (a legacy of the Rwandan Space Agency’s long-standing role in space diplomacy). This real-time service coordinates on-demand launches to all destinations.

Humanity uses this environment as a viewing platform from which it can observe the Earth and the universe, as a thoroughfare for spacecraft, and as a home for satellites. Satellites provide commercial services such as telecommunications and Earth observation, civic services such as climate studies, and weather-monitoring and military services such as intelligence-gathering and both offensive and defensive operations.

Nation states have already begun to increase resources devoted to protecting, inspecting and destroying assets in space.8 The weaponisation of space is increasing tensions and raising the stakes for space-related diplomacy.9

Overcrowding is likely to become an important issue, particularly in areas of special interest, such as Lagrange points and low Earth orbit. But the prospects of “Kessler Syndrome”, in which a chain reaction of collisions increases debris levels exponentially, will drop as operators remove the large pieces of debris, like defunct satellites and spent rocket stages, that are the greatest threat. Various companies and agencies are already developing debris-removal capabilities. Space tugs that can move satellites have already been demonstrated, and the European Space Agency plans to demonstrate the safe removal of a large piece of debris with its Clearspace-1 satellite,10 due for launch in 2026.

How this orbital hygiene will be organised is not clear, but there are calls for a better form of space traffic control to reduce the chance of accidents, for the planned clean-up of space debris and for an appropriate legal environment to resolve disputes.