Theories and concepts for plural futures
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Theories and concepts for plural futures

4.3.2

Sub-Field

Theories and concepts for plural futures

Theories of futures are diverse.25,26,27 Technologists and engineers often see the future as a problem to be solved, for instance — as an incrementally evolving "better" version of the present, where new technologies can solve societal problems or where future life will be disrupted by major social, economic or environmental upheaval, to be solved by building adaptive capabilities and systems to increase resilience and flexibility. When decision-makers adopt these world-views (or varieties of them) they often inform top-down strategies which may be ineffective or resisted.28

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Qualitative, quantitative and technical disciplines collaborate

Social-science theories of futures as uncertain, plural and non-linear moderate the assumptions of engineering and systems theories to better inform futures decision-making. A flexible suite of interdisciplinary futures concepts facilitates collaboration between qualitative, quantitative and technical disciplines.

10-yearhorizon

Interdisciplinary theories drive decision-making

Interdisciplinary theories of futures, attentive to social-science perspectives, drive futures decision-making. This is supported by a dynamic set of interdisciplinary futures concepts designed to account for the intersection of humanity, environment and other species and technologies in shaping futures.

25-yearhorizon

Just, sustainable and digital futures arise

The benefits of mobilising social-science theory in an interdisciplinary futures framework is clearly visible as, for example, just, sustainable and digital futures come into view.

Contrastingly, social scientists, humanities and design research theories from the Global South and North, and treat futures as emergent, possible, plural, situated, contingent and not necessarily causal or linear. To embrace the conditions and experiences of futures aligned with this theoretical perspective a series of concepts have been proposed and tested. These include (but are not limited to): uncertainty, trust, hope, anxiety, friction, breakage, repair and aspiration, desirability and utopia. This framework can be used to ask how emerging technologies might be reshaped by the agency of people who use them in society and what this implies for realistic and plausible community futures; or how ethical futures might be shaped when plural preferred futures exist in society, for example in the present dialogue relating to just transitions to net zero-carbon emissions. Often these challenges cannot be solved by linear theories of futures, where technology is thought to simply impact on society or where building adaptive systems is assumed to lead to resilient societies.

Bringing social-science theories and concepts to bear on technical and system solutions can improve our ability to develop plausible, realistic and ethical solutions and achieve goals of inclusive and just futures.