Our energy infrastructure is currently designed to supply three vastly different types of demand: heating and cooling technology; transport and industry; and electrically powered apparatus and infrastructure ranging from washing machines to data centres. This has led to a siloed approach which leaves ample opportunity for convergence towards lower-carbon alternatives.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Integrated energy systems begin to emerge

Integrated energy systems, with shared infrastructure and interoperable AI-driven optimisation and control systems, begin to benefit from advanced control approaches using machine learning. Decentralised control also optimises the exchange of energy across different sectors while minimising losses.

10-yearhorizon

International energy flows accelerate

Efficient energy flows across borders and regions become widespread thanks to a silo-free integrated energy system and agile programmable devices that make the best use of the available infrastructure.

25-yearhorizon

Energy systems managed on a global scale

Computational advances in AI and quantum computing allow energy systems to be simulated and managed dynamically on a global scale. This leads to a seamlessly integrated energy system across geographies that can operate autonomously. Space-based solar-harvesting technologies send energy to Earth for the first time. However, hundreds of millions still do not have access to electricity.

This energy transition is already under way. Clean power is now 40 per cent of global electricity production and the amount of solar power is doubling every three years.¹ For several years now, it has generally been cheaper to build a new clean-energy power plant (with storage) than it is to operate an existing fossil-fuel power plant.² But properly modelling and operating energy systems that integrate systems for electricity, fuel and heat requires significant advances. These include high-resolution computer models that capture complex behaviour, control systems optimised by machine learning, standardised communication protocols so that key components can integrate into decentralised systems and advanced cybersecurity to secure energy networks against attack. The scale of these systems must also increase so that energy can flow smoothly across borders, entire regions and potentially globally. This scaling will require advances in modelling, analysis and prediction enabled by advances in AI and quantum computing.

Non-technical barriers, such as legal incompatibilities across regions, socio-political resistance and skills gaps, are also beginning to weigh more heavily than technical ones. For example, global energy policies are heavily biased towards fossil fuels, which are currently subsidised to the tune of up to $7 trillion a year compared to the $1.2 trillion invested in clean energy. Ensuring equal access to clean energy is also a growing concern, given the initial cost of acquiring the infrastructure to deliver it. Ensuring that all people can benefit from the outset is an important task.

Integrated energy - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.