Understanding the way human energy use is coupled to the environment involves dealing with the complex interplay between land, air and ocean systems. Reducing humans’ energy-related impact on the environment is also complex, involving social, economic and political forces.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Short-term goals unmet

Many of the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals are not achieved.

10-yearhorizon

Mid-term goals are more realistic

An integrated understanding of science, engineering and economics will help policy-makers optimise geopolitical processes and risks across global scales.

25-yearhorizon

With immediate widespread action, long-term goals are achievable

Environmental allowances, similar to a carbon tax, lead to dramatic falls in consumption and the use of natural resources. This raises hope that 2050 environmental targets can be achieved.

Economic incentives could help, given their role in past environmental progress such as reducing sulphur-dioxide emissions by switching from coal-burning to gas. In the same way, future transitions will mean creating opportunities for large industries to invest in new technologies that reduce environmental impacts.

One important issue is the role of consumption. Even with cleaner technology, emissions continue to increase because overall activity increases. One reason for this is that our economic models do not account for the true environmental cost of extracting and consuming natural resources. Finding ways to model and control consumption, perhaps with "environmental allowances", will be essential.

Beyond that, the switch to a circular economy will require a mindset shift,¹⁰ focusing on recovering resources rather than just reducing pollution. This includes, for example, turning waste into fertiliser and developing devices to recover nitrogen from emissions for reuse,¹¹ plus reuse of solar-panel materials, recovery of lithium and the development of industrial symbiosis projects.

Crucial to these goals is the recognition of the inescapable coupling between energy generation and the environment. Achieving our 2050 environmental goals will require immediate action, but shorter-term goals look increasingly unachievable. Without urgent action at every scale of society, there is a significant chance that many of the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals will not be met.

Coupling energy and environment - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.